Title: Impacts, response, effectiveness and outlook of Indian healthcare sector - post Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

The Covid-19 Pandemic has created anxiety for regulators and healthcare authorities worldwide. It is essential to understand and analyse, post pandemic impacts on Indian Healthcare system when the Government has taken an ambitious target of bringing Indian Healthcare system among worldwide top 100 global healthcare systems. The pandemic has severely impacted human resource, worldwide so as in India. The case of Indian healthcare system is prominent since India has second largest population in the world and holds poor healthcare system. Even though condition of Indian Healthcare system is not strong still during pandemic ministry of health and welfare (MOHW)- a central Indian healthcare authority responded to crisis.The study will examine how Indian healthcare system responded during covid-19 to overcome the impacts and challenges. Though, the central Healthcare authorities responded in crisis situation but it is essential to analyse the effectiveness of responses were similar across India or had any discrepancies, in this backdrop study will gauge the effectiveness of responses on various Indian provinces and Union territories (UT). The study will assess the response effectiveness through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), an empirical tool. The empirical analysis outcomes it will be easy for policymakers to revisit their existing responses/policy announcements and make necessary changes if it needed. The study will just not rework on policy framework but also reveal pain point of each zone and thus the specific mitigation measures can be suggested. Also, post COVID-19 the study also reflects upon future outlook of healthcare system in India. Authors realised the major challenges in Healthcare sector post pandemic are- physical and mental exhaustion of the healthcare workforce, worn-out hospital infrastructure, growing “backlog” of healthcare procedures, containment (and progressive de-confinement), economic recession, will undoubtedly affect mental health (e.g., anxiety, depression) and physical health. Thus, to overcome these challenges few responses taken by Indian central Healthcare system i.e., timely ban on travel, sealing of borders and a near complete lockdown, contact tracing, testing, Treatment, supplies etc. Occasionally the responses taken by ministry of health and welfare (MOHWF) targets few background motives i.e., control the spread, preparedness of health infrastructure, human resources and medical supplies in place to handle the expected surge in cases. In This backdrop, authors try to establish theory around motives behind responses and steps taken by government and thereby visualize future outlook of Indian healthcare sector. Authors analyse the effectiveness of these responses via empirical linkage between responses and its preventive measures. The authors identified specific motives behind schemes announcements were, control virus spread, prepare infrastructure, prepare healthcare workforce and medical supplies and linked with input indicators i.e. during unprecedented timings and examined its effect on mortality rate and survival rate of various provinces and UT of India, through data envelopment. The DEA will also evaluate the individual province utilization of resources and effectiveness on patients and also thereby identify state specific the pain points of Healthcare system. The study employs a data envelopment analysis on 35 Indian provinces and Union territories (28 states and 8 Union Territories) Healthcare system over a period of 1 year for year 2020-21on monthly basis. The study will also analyse pre- COVID-19 scenario of healthcare system between 2016-2020 on quarterly basis. The findings of the empirical analysis will help to perform the ranking of each province/ UT and reveal the specific pain points across India and its various provinces needs much improvement. Finally, based on empirical evidences authors present the future outlook of Indian Healthcare system given the current situation persist. The study will be helpful for Indian healthcare policymakers and decision makers to be vigilant about policy revisions on real time and need based.